RACY THOUGHTS --- AN ANALYSIS
THE END OF NASCAR : IT’S COMING, AND SOON
Was watching the Brazil F1 race (thank goodness for SPEED TV, even if their F1 announcers are sitting in a studio in Bristol, CT) and saw the pass by Michael Schumacher of Kimi Raikonnen, who just so happens to be Schuie’s replacement on the Ferarri team next year.
After the race I called a good friend, the motorsports writer for a “major American newspaper”, and he had a great line: “It’s amazing when anyone makes a pass in F1!” He was right, of course, but F1 continues as both the world’s most expensive and most money-making racing series. Bernie Ecclestone’s solid control over the sport proves again that the only way to successfully run a racing series is via a ‘benevolent dictatorship’.
Before we go on, what about F1 in the USA? The race at Indy is becoming a classic, but it is taking time, and things would have moved along faster if 2005’s race had not been such a debacle, with only 6 starters due to problems with the Michelin tires for the teams using them. Only the Goodyear-shod teams started. Where the road course part of the Indy track meets the oval, running left to right onto and then through Indy’s Turn 1, the G-forces were simply too much for the Michelins designed for Indy. And the terrible wreck in practice/qualifying involving Ralf Schumacher in that very turn added to the bad taste which the event left in everyone’s mouth. Other problems: The race promoters are contracted to pay for the travel of all the F1 teams and their cars and equipment. Tony George might be able to afford that, but precious few other promoters in America can. And the biggest problem of all: No successful American F1 driver in the series. Scott Speed, a gifted California driver who races even while suffering throughout his life with Ulcerative Colitis, is an inspiration to millions around the globe, but not yet a successful F1 driver. That may come in time, but Speed (great name, though!) needs to do something impressive and quickly in F1 … like a ride with a team capable of putting a car on the podium at the finish within the first five races next season.
Apart from F1, the other series which has proved that adage true is NASCAR. Under the proverbial thumb of the France family since “Big” Bill France founded the series over 50 years ago, NASCAR owners, as much or more than any other racing series in history, understands the ‘show’ part of racing more than any other.
Remember the only Mexican driver in the Busch Series, a driver whose bio wasn’t even listed on the NASCAR website, winning the ‘pole position’ for the first Busch race ever in Mexico City? In the race, the guy’s engine blew up after about 20 laps --- Now, did the France family (and other powers-that-be) allow that team to put a ‘tampered’ engine into that driver’s race car to let him get the pole, knowing the engine would last only a few laps under racing conditions? No one knows, but it made for a hell of a news story and guaranteed Mexican fans would be at the race track the next day in huge numbers for the actual race.
In fact, the disasters which have been CART and the Indy Racing League, prove again that series owners can not have ownership interests in the various race teams in their series and expect success.
I attended the first west coast press conference Tony George gave about his founding of the IRL, and he swore up and down that he would never have any ownership interest in any IRL team. We know now that George, if he wasn’t lying, had to eat his words a few years later when he took interest in more than one IRL team and their drivers. (George also swore, at that same meeting, that his series would be low cost, would feature American drivers and would focus only on oval race tracks. So much for Tony George and honesty).
The team owners also running the show is what eventually ‘did in’ CART. The CART board consisted mostly of the team owners. No racing series can exist for long that way. Looks like Champ Car is headed in the same direction.
But NASCAR has bigger problems right now that you won’t read about on NASCAR.com or hear about on their broadcasts. And the name of their biggest problem is: “Toyota”. (Photo: Left, Toyota NASCAR V8 engine).
Toyota has plans for at least seven drivers on three different teams to be ready for the green flag at the Daytona 500 early next year to kick-off the 2007 Nextel Cup season (As an aside: I expect the series name to be changed next year to the NASCAR Sprint Cup, now that Nextel and Sprint are the same company. MUCH better name for a racing series! Might be so obvious no one has brought it up).
Both attendance at NASCAR races has gone down and TV viewership has dropped. Oh, the overall numbers are still strong, NASCAR expects 55 or so entrants for every Cup race in 2007 and both the Busch Series and Craftsman Truck Series continue to make money from their TV contracts.
Some folks might think one of the main problems has to do with Cup racers becoming “Busch-Whackers”, entering Busch Series races on those weekend when the Busch and Cup races are at the same track. But this season, even the races were far away, there were a number of Cup racers in the Busch events, and Kevin Harvick, a full-time Cup competitor, has won the Busch title this year. As much as that might hurt the wallets of Busch teams, it’s actually a pretty good thing for everyone. The crowds are larger for Busch races when Cup competitors are in them, and the Busch racers have a lot of Cup teams and their owners watching them race.
My solution, if there is a problem? Put the prize money which the full-time Cup racers win in Busch events into a pool which is shared among all the full-time Busch racers at the end of the season. Trust us, the Cup racers don’t need the $35,000 they get for winning a Busch race. Most if not all of the full-time Cup racers are making well over a million dollars a year. Jeff Gordon, after finishing 36th at Talladega recently, nonetheless put his prize-winnings in NASCAR Cup racing over $80 million.
NASCAR’s biggest problem is amount of money Toyota brings to the game. Toyota is the wealthiest, most successful company of any kind in the world today. They have over $60 billion in cash, in the bank. They have been spending well over $100 million on their own F1 team for the past few years with virtually nothing to show for it so far. Interestingly, next season, Toyota will supply their engine to the Williams F1 Team, which might help cut some of Toyota’s astronomical costs in the series.
Given Toyota’s much-anticipated official entry into NASCAR Cup racing (we are certain at least some of the cars driven by next year’s Toyota drivers in the late-season races this year are carrying some if not mostly Toyota suspension and engine parts), the specter of costs rises.
The simple truth is that Toyota can afford to outspend GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler (DCX) in the series and have shown that they are not afraid of throwing huge dollars at their race car development (see their F1 experience).
What controls does NASCAR have on team spending? None, really, outside of a rule book which tries to control costs through technology. But NASCAR Cup race cars are becoming as sophisticated as the top open-wheel cars, and cubic dollars has always been one way to win a race or a series.
When NASCAR was purely a southeast sport, “Win on Sunday, Sell on Monday” made some sense to Detroit. While the northeast and the west coast were buying more and more import cars and souring on Detroit (Toyota’s largest metro market in the US has consistently been Chicago, not Los Angeles), the rivalry between GM, FoMoCo and DCX was still real in the southeast.
Has NASCAR’s national growth resulted in their attendance and TV viewership drop-offs? And will a Chevy or Dodge or Fusion winning on Sunday really affect buyers outside the southeast?
NASCAR has large problems. Potentially, if Toyota outspends the competition and simply buys their way to the Cup championship within only a few years and becomes difficult to dethrone, will the southeast fans stay loyal to NASCAR?
And if a Monte, Fusion or Charger win doesn’t result in any sales outside one part of the country, can NASCAR keep demanding the kind of big national money they are getting from the Big Three? Or will at least one of the (former) Big Three drop their NASCAR involvement well before Toyota wins a title? Ford was rumored to be out of NASCAR at least once already this season.
The things affecting NASCAR and which could put it out of business within a decade are out of the France family’s hands. If the Big Three start to cut-back (which is almost a given) and imports begin marching into NASCAR (Honda will follow Toyota, and why not a BMW 5-series sedan?), what will then constitute NASCAR’s “fan base”?
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